A Canadian federal election is very likely in 2007. The average life of a federal minority government? in Canada is about 14 months. This would place the election in March 2007 or possibly April or May since a second winter election? in a row is likely to anger the public. However this factor might also move up any election to the fall or early winter of 2006.

Prime Minister of Canada Stephen Harper has set a legislative course to try to avoid a second election in 2006 by seeking to focus on items where he is likely to get some cross-party agreement or at least little friction:

• his Federal Accountability Act? intended to address issues arising from the Sponsorship Scandal, strengthening the Auditor General
• a free vote? on same-sex marriage
• the GST cut from 7% to 6% immediately

Some volatile issues likely to trigger an earlier rather than later election:

• income tax cuts - these replace a Liberal tax cut which will have to be cancelled, and one of them replaces a Liberal daycare? program which the NDP supports
• expansion of the private role in healthcare
• any attempt to use the Notwithstanding Clause on same-sex marriage or any Charter issue?
• attempts to withdraw from Kyoto protocol that would force Quebec out - though Harper could make concessions to Quebec sovereignty and let Quebec sign separately, a major victory for the Bloc Quebecois
• attempts to join the Iraq war
• attempts to join Ballistic Missile Defense? program by the US
• even the hint of joining in an Iran war?